There are people in any society with a keen sense of the future. One of them is Patrick J. Buchanan, whose book Death of the West continues the series of works by renowned analysts, such as F. Fukuyama, S. Huntington and I. Wallerstein, in predicting the end of Christian civilization.

Not only is Buchanan a philosophy writer, but also an active Western politician and an advisor to presidents Nixon and Reagan. Moreover, in 1992 and 1996 he was a Republican presidential candidate himself. Buchanan cannot rid himself of a sense of looming catastrophe. He believes that the reasons behind the decline of Christian civilization are found in moral flaws and the disavowal of key commandments. He is concerned over the unrestrained liberalism that leads to complete license and, eventually, to vulnerability to internal and external threats. For our purposes, this begs the question: How will this Christian apocalypse affect Ukraine?

Samuel Huntington once tried to describe future options for the Orthodox Christian world. He discussed whether this world was part of the common Christian civilization or whether it should be treated as a separate one. Russian Professor Igor Yakovenko, in his interview to ZN (#40, 2004), discussed several scenarios based on cultural differences within the Orthodox Christian world and ensuing geopolitical preferences in Eastern European countries. However, intensified depopulation in the Old World shifted focus to demographic indicators in projecting our civilization’s future development. This, it would seem, is a far more serious concern. This future looks bleak with abandoned villages, scarcely populated metropolises, and idle factories lacking labor…

Our correspondent met with a leading Ukrainian demography expert, Deputy Director of the Demography Institute and Correspondent Member of the National Academy of Sciences Ella Libanova. She was directly involved in the preparation of the first Ukrainian Census, setting up its rules, norms, and procedures. The census revealed a dramatic depopulation taking place in this country.

Libanova- By the end of 2005, we will have witnessed a birth rate growth and even more children will be born in 2006. I think the trend will last through 2007, but I am not so optimistic about any further demographic developments… Ukrainian and international experience shows that the impact of such monetary incentives is short-lived, four years at the most. The short-term effects are very powerful, though---a maternity allowance at birth amounts to an average annual wage in Ukraine. As matters stand, as few as 12 children are born per 10 women of fertile age in Ukraine. For a simple reproduction, this ratio should be 10 women to 22 children, which means the birth rate should be doubled. I doubt it could be achieved through increasing monetary allowances alone.

Libanova-One alternative is a proactive immigration policy. However, I am not sure Ukraine is prepared to function as a multiethnic society. Observing life in most Western capitals, one comes to realize how many cultural challenges it may entail. Those challenges are very grave since different nations’ traditions and ways of life are so diverse, sometimes almost incompatible. I remember attending a conference where Indian delegates denounced the West for thrusting its living standards upon developing countries. They said the latter might not need running water or sanitation in their homes at all…

We would never understand the oriental mentality of the Japanese: notwithstanding their high incomes and state-of-the-art technologies, their working week is the world’s longest, they practically have no holidays and do not mind living in crowded apartments, with seven people sharing a room. People in the East have found their alternative values and approaches to life, but we would hardly find there any recipes for improving the situation in Ukraine.

Libanova- The government claims to have developed an immigration policy framework. I have never seen it. We should have a thorough analysis of what categories of immigrants the country needs; it is a common international practice. If we lack rural residents, we should tell the newcomers: You will be living in villages and working in agriculture. In the case of immigration, we should set clear terms and conditions.

Libanova-Africans will hardly get to our country. Nor will Arabs be ready to come all the way to Ukraine. As for the citizens of the former Soviet Central Asian republics and those of the Northern Caucasus, including Chechnya and Afghanistan---they can form the core of the potential immigration inflow. Coming to Ukraine, they will bring a different way of life with them. We should understand that Russians left the Central Asian republics because they could not handle the cultural differences, which aggravated political conflicts. We should be prepared for problems in communicating with the newcomers; we should learn to manage diversity.

So far, democratic societies have designed only two ways of treating immigrants. The first way is to help them preserve their identity disregarding cultural differences between them and the host nation. The USA and UK have assumed this approach. The second way, preferred by France, is to actively assimilate the newcomers. It is hard to say which of the two is better or more effective. Assisting people in preserving their identity seems more humane. Yet a lot of experts would argue that America is on the verge of a split, and racial riots are not uncommon in Great Britain. On the other hand, you could go to Paris or Southern France and see what a typical Frenchman looks like…

It is a problem shared by all large, Western cities: you will find Chinatowns, Arab communities, and Sikh quarters with their characteristic lifestyles and customs everywhere. Look at Borshchagivka district in Kyiv---immigrants settle down there occupying entire high-rise blocks. They have their specific psychological climate, food, and traditions there, just like migrants from Russia and Ukraine to Brighton Beach in New York. Living in ethnic communities gives them a sense of security, confidence, and comfort. Deep down, most people are xenophobic, alas. For us to learn to live in a multicultural society could take centuries. Therefore I do not think immigration is the best solution for Ukraine, at least at present.

Libanova-First of all, we should improve the quality of the population, its health and life expectancy. People should live longer and healthier lives. Birth dynamics in Ukraine are very similar to that in Western countries, but the death risk for able-bodied men is as high as 38 percent. It is unacceptable! Mortality trends also differ much from those observed in civilized countries. Whereas in the West, mortality tends to go down gradually, Ukraine suffers from unbalanced ups and downs. Reasons are plenty---from poor roads to bad habits.

We have to create and promote standards of healthy living. We should extirpate smoking, particularly in public places. All civilized countries make a concerted effort to urge their populations to stop smoking, in order to prevent oncology diseases. In Ukraine, on the contrary, the number of smokers grows, particularly among young people and women. Our people should drink less. In no way am I advocating another Gorbachev-style anti-alcohol campaign, but it is true that at the campaign’s height, the mortality rate in Ukraine was the lowest (in the decade of 1981-1990), even though 1986 was the year of the Chernobyl NPP accident…

Libanova-I cannot say it was the only reason, but there were no other events or remarkable developments to account for the said improvement that year.

Libanova-You are right. Such campaigns in democratic countries are organized and conducted in a very different way. In Canada, for instance, authorities worked with psychologists who persuaded them it would be unfeasible to prohibit smoking everywhere and at once. So they jointly developed a phased plan, starting with public agencies. No elected representative or appointed official will dare to smoke when they are under close public scrutiny. They prohibited advertising cigarettes on billboards and TV. Insurance companies raised their life insurance policy prices for smokers, which had a great impact on the public sentiment, attitudes, and behavior. When restaurant and pub owners saw that their visitors did not want to sit next to smokers, the time was ripe to ban smoking in cafes and restaurants. Very soon, a non-smoking lifestyle came into fashion…

Libanova-In Canada, they fight against drunk driving by banning the sale of alcohol, even beer, along motor roads. No driver will keep a bottle with alcohol in his/her car: in the case of accident, no matter how small, if the police find alcohol in the involved car they will not even investigate the accident any further, but rather that car’s driver will be held responsible. Our society is becoming more democratic. Coercion and duress will never work: it is only through persuasion that we will be able to introduce healthy lifestyles.

Libanova-Depopulation is underway in rural areas. We are currently drafting a strategy for Ukraine’s demographic development. It will promote a two-child family as basic for the country. It would be great if we succeed in implementing it.

ZN-Have you ever heard of an electronic womb for carrying fetus from conception to birth? Scientists in England are designing it. From what leaked into the press, they expect that by 2015-2020 this electronic wonder will free women from the sufferings of pregnancy. They even told the reporters that girls born in this century, having no need to carry their children themselves, will be able to preserve their youthful bodies until a very old age. At the same time they will be able to have as many children as they want, with the help of medicine and technology. Isn’t that a perfect solution for all depopulation problems that demographers are incapable of addressing?

Libanova-I do not believe it. In my opinion, nature will not tolerate such experiments.

Libanova-It is absolutely impossible for contemporary women. At a UN demographics conference some time ago, an idea was mooted, which I can neither confirm nor disprove, that the European race has fulfilled its mission as a civilization and must now decline as all civilizations do. There is no sense resisting the inevitable: the mighty Egyptian civilization did give way to its successors, after all.

P.S. By way of conclusion, we would like to cite a bit of statistics: in the early 20th century, the white race constituted one third of the world’s population; today its share has shrunk to one tenth. By 2050, the while population of the globe will be so minute that it will have no influence whatsoever on the international arena. To everything there is a season.