Truly popular politicians are not that many in Ukraine; such a conclusion can be drawn from these poll results. Moreover, really well-known politicians are not that many in Ukraine: half of the country’s population does not know their first deputy Prime Minister, a little more - their Foreign Minister, to say nothing of the fact that practically 56% of the population have never heard the name of the Interior Minister. 49.5% do not know the head of the Crimean autonomous republic Leonid Hrach. For 48% of the respondents the name of Volodymyr Litvin was meaningless, while for 40% the name of the head of the Tax Administration Mykola Azarov was also meaningless. It is obvious that this country does not know its leaders.

Nevertheless, many of those people next to whose name there are impressive figures in the column “I don’t know him/her”, are going to run for parliament. Different political parties and election blocks are even fighting for them. Why do they then fight if their rating of trust and popularity is so incredibly small? Exactly. Every party or block is trying to get on to their list the largest possible number of people in decision-making positions in the political and economic spheres. Many of these people are not known to the general public, but the levers and ropes in their hands may yet yield the results of a far more steadfast nature than their popularity ratings. This is what, in fact, the whole election strategy is built on.

But then, influence ratings will practically always differ from ratings of public affection. The voters tend to be extremely conservative sometimes, which is vividly demonstrated by the example of Viktor Yushchenko. After his resignation, 29% of the population supported him completely, according to the results of the Razumkov Center’s poll. By the beginning of this political season, the number has gone as low as 21% but is now slowly rising. As usual, Viktor Yushchenko tops the popularity ratings. The Prime Minister and the Communist party leader share second place, each having received 14% of the public trust. However, the total rating of Anatoliy Kinakh is higher than the rating of Petro Simonenko, since 33.4 % approve of some of the Prime Minister’s actions while only 18.1% support some of the actions of Simonenko. The President was ranked third with 10%. His total rating has fallen a few percent, which was probably the result of shooting down the airliner in the Crimea. For the second time running, the Prime Minister has outstripped the President in popularity ratings. The first time, as we remember, was during Yushchenko’s premiership. It is remarkable that Kinakh’s rating is growing despite his complete absence on the TV screens and in the press. The negative balance of Leonid Kuchma is due more to Kuchma’s faults than to Kinakh’s merits, though. Some experts even believe that the superiority of Prime Minister’s ratings is guaranteed to be greater than Kuchma’s up until 2004 [the end of Kuchma’ term of office]. That could be so, but one should not forget that the economy is an extremely capricious lady. The votes thus far do not always associate this change for the worse with the head of state.

Incidentally, the President was ranked amongst the top three least popular politicians. 44.6% do not approve of the head of the state. On the one hand, one may assume that the President is not pleased with his neighbors on the pedestal, though on the other hand he should be glad that 46.6% of Ukrainians do not support Oleksandr Moroz and 58.9% do not approve of Yuliya Tymoshenko. In fact, the closeness of these three names is quite easy to explain. The way the President acted over this past year has turned him, in the eyes of a large segment of Ukrainians, from the center of the universe into one of its poles. The head of the socialist party together with the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) leader represent the second pole. The Ukrainian population does not approve of radical and extreme positions; it gravitates towards constructivism and is scared of fanaticism. Public opinion is that very dimension where North and South can come together, while the common consciousness may put an equals sign between these foes.

It is generally accepted that presidential elections are a fight of individuals, whilst parliamentary elections are a fight between political programs. In Ukraine, this principle has never been strictly adhered to. During the presidential elections, factor of individual qualities was added to the administrative powers while during the parliamentary elections, the ideology was quite often overshadowed by the effect certain individuals had upon the voters.

During the 2002 elections, the factor of individual qualities is very likely to retain its foremost role; but at the same time all the sociological surveys of the Ruzumkov Center testify to the fact that the Ukrainian population will support in the first place those who are ready to unite and demonstrate a mutual understanding. The popularity rating of “Our Ukraine” is an irrefutable proof of that. Almost 20% are ready to vote in favor of the block headed by their beloved Yushchenko. However, such technique of getting the electors’ support is not working for the block “For United Ukraine” at present. However, let us not gloat over its 2.3% rating. Firstly, it is unclear for the population with whom to associate this block. Secondly, there is no well-established block as such at present. Thirdly, it consists of parties little known to wide circles. Its rating is falling only because the population has not received a clear picture of this block for some time. On the other hand, this assessment is an objective one and vividly demonstrates numerically the electors’ preferences to parties that have united. During the next five months remaining before the elections, the block will undoubtedly speak about unity and the need for mutual understanding; its rating will rise due to its election techniques, finances, administrative resources and, which is very likely, due to the membership of the Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs headed by Prime Minister Anatoliy Kinakh. The Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs is rated one tenth of a percent lower than the “Tundra”. However, the personal rating of Kinakh is five times higher than the rating of both blocks. Which is why it is not quite clear why the Prime Minister and the Party of Regions should tolerate the hitching to their wagon of those simply ambitious.

And things are not going very well for the third block, “The National Salvation Forum” r. It is very likely that due to its low ratings the name of the block will be changed. It is unclear whether it will be called “Batkivchshina (Fatherland) - FNS” or just simply “Yuliya Tymoshenko’s block”, but with either of these two names the opposition stands a better chance to overcome the four percent threshold to parliament. It is quite possible that Anatoliy Matvienko’s and Levko Lukyanenko’s parties will leave the union set up by Yulia Tymoshenko. At least, this is what they are talking about with the “Our Ukraine” block. At the same time, in spite of the population’s mistrust, the personal rating of Yulia Tymoshenko is 6%, which is quite enough to overcome the threshold. However there is another question: is it enough to overcome the administrative resistance to be put up to Tymoshenko and her block during the elections?

The popularity of Aleksandr Volkov’s “Democratic Union” has dropped by a tenth of a percent. And here again there rises the issue of the electors’ reaction to a name. A virtual Democratic party, which actually does nothing even to advertise itself, has achieved 2.6% of the electors’ vote. The “Democratic Union”, which is leading a massive advertising campaign at prime time, carrying out activities in the regions and spending considerable funds on these activities, falls behind its former ally Anna Anatoliyevan, the owner of the brand “Democratic Party of Ukraine”. The coming together of these two political forces would hardly be perceived by the public as a serious factor demonstrating their ability to come to an agreement, on the one hand, however on the other, the presence of these two democratic parties on the voting list is a losing game for both of them.

The popularity of the communists has significantly decreased. Two month ago, the Bankova Street was certain that Petro Simonenko’s party would gain at least 25 % of the seats as a result of proportional voting. Currently, the results testify that the communists’ rating is estimated at 15.6%. There are several reasons for such an all-time low result. The first reason is a rather sad one: the numbers of supporters of the communists have decreased physically. Those for whom communist values were associated not only with ideology and a way of living but also with the memories of youth are passing away. The second reason consists of a certain weakness of the communists in the present parliament. They keep on losing their influence due to the abilities of the right and the center to come to agreement with each other in certain situations. The Communist party representatives have become a rarity on TV screens and the pages of newspapers. However it is quite likely that by the time the elections start, their situation will improve. This might possibly be helped by the worsening of the economic situation in the country. This year, the state budget will lack 2 billion Hryvnays that were supposed to come from the privatization sell offs. The word is out that the real reason for freezing the privatization of the regional energy distributing companies and the telephone company “Ukrtelecom” was the unwillingness of the oligarchs to be occupied with two such important and laborious businesses as privatization and elections at one and the same time. If due to this the gap in the budget makes the clearing of wage arrears and the regular payment of salaries impossible, this may serve as a catalyst for the increase of the rating of the left. But in any case, one could hardly speak about possible revenge of the Orthodox Left in Ukraine either now and or the future.

And the rating of the Socialist Democratic Party of Ukraine (united) has frozen at the same level. The support expressed by the population to the social democrats equals the support shown to Victor Medvedchuk, which makes 4.2 %. At present, the colossal efforts made by the party to attract voters have produced no tangible results. But it is never too late. Well-organized work, a well-developed structure, a large media resource will of course yield results. The closest possible cooperation with the Prime Minister can be also included in the number of positive aspects of the SDPU. At the same time, one should not forget that no one will present the social democrats with the so much desired 10% of seats since the majority of the governors neither in public nor in person favored this party. To say nothing of the fact that the presence of the Social Democratic Party (united) in the political and especially economic spheres of the country contributed to the internal central movement inside of such blocks as “Our Ukraine” and “For United Ukraine” and made the ideological position of these two blocks closer.

The communists may ally (and have already allied on a number of issues) on the ostracism of the social democrats. Thus, not only the right centrist but also the left centrists plan on a majority in the future parliament.

The socialist leader Oleksandr Moroz fells very insecure, judging by the poll results. His party’s rating of 2.3 % is much lower than his personal rating of 5.8%. And even if his party manages to overcome the four percent threshold, again this will happen not due to its ideological appeal but due to the personal impression made by Oleksandr Moroz on the voters. However, the party may well remind the voters of itself by using special election techniques. Lately, there have been too many rumors of a possible second wave of the “cassette scandal”. Meanwhile, the results of numerous sociological studies prove the supposition that today as never before the population is skeptical about the possibility of an effective struggle with injustice. People need money, and it is very likely that the majority is ready to think about rights and liberties only on its receipt.

While the Green party thinks about neither money nor liberties. Its members on the election list have more than enough of both. At present, the only problem with Vitaliy Kononov’s party is Vadim Rabinovich. The word is out that Vadim Rabinocih is constantly trying to get a considerable share for his people in this party’s list. It is not known yet, what will be the result of this competition, but there is certainly no doubt that the Greens will overcome the four percent threshold. At present, this party hasas much to do with environmental concerns as it did four years ago… However, it did make a number of serious acquisitions. The Ecology Minster Serhiy Kurykin, an enthusiastic devotee of the environment, is one of them. Also a well-known surgeon, the president of the Academy of Medical Sciences Oleksandr Vozianov, who is an obviously influential politician and a very competent medical specials.

And finally the last result worthy of attention is the 0.7% of popularity received by the party “Yednist” (Unity). It is the party that Kyiv major Oleksandr Omelchenko has chosen as a starting point for his political career. As we have seen, for some time Oleksandr Oleksandrovich has failed to achieve any tangible results. Perhaps because of this he is rushing between the Bankova, Yushchenko, and the rights, between a confidence in his victory and the doubts about the expediency of the fight for parliamentary seats.

In one of its previous issues, ZN published the results of the Razumkov Center’s poll conducted in the Ukrainian capital regarding the readiness of Ukrainians to participate in military action leading fprm the acts of terrorism in the USA. Let us remind ourselves that somewhat less than 3 % of Kyiv residents said that they had friends or relatives ready to fight in Afghanistan on a contract basis. The preferences of the potential volunteers were to an anti terrorist campaign by a very slight margin, and, what is remarkable, none of the capital’s residents will go to figh guided by the principle “who will pay more”. The results of a similar poll conducted nationwide look rather impressive against this background. 9.2 % of the respondents are ready to take up arms, out of which 36.1% potentially would fight for the coalition and 5.5% (or seven times less than in Kyiv) for the Talibian.

But what is most important, 48.7 % of those ready to fight will join the side of those who pay more. Such a considerable difference from the data obtained in the capital can be explained only by only one reason: it is much easier to find a job in Kyiv then in the provinces. The problem of earnings forces people to even hypothetically think about the possibility of earning their living and supporting their families in such a way. Nobody knows for sure what is the exact number of the population of Ukraine. Statistics indicates 48-49 million, the findings of the research conducted by the specialists from the Bankova give a number of 47 million. If we take the lesser number as a starting point, then we will see that 4 million 324 thousand Ukrainians are potentially ready to join the armed conflict, with 2 million 100 thousand ready to do it for the sake of money. We believe, that the authorities should think about these numbers. Not only those who are responsible for law enforcement in this county (although it is probably worth increasing their vigilance over any emergence of recruiting centers since the elements necessary for mercenary activity, as we see, are available in this country), but those who are responsible for the state of economy and public welfare.

6% of the polled found it difficult to answer the question about the possibility of their taking part in any military operations on a contractuall basis. Yet the majority (84.7%) categorically refuses to even think about it.