Having published the outcomes of the Socis survey in its previous issue, ZN continues to inform its readers of the current public sentiment regarding the upcoming elections and their participants. On 22-28 June 2004, the Razumkov Centre Sociological Service surveyed 2,014 respondents in all regions of Ukraine, the sampling error being 2.3 %. The following are some of the poll results.

The ratings of two election frontrunners are growing. Viktor Yushchenko has received most of the votes of Yuliya Tymoshenko’s supporters upon concluding a coalition agreement with her bloc. Viktor Yanukovych’s rating has taken up those of other top officials who never registered as election candidates, although they were on the list at the time of the previous Razumkov Centre’s survey: for example, Viktor Medvedchuk, Serhiy Tyhypko, Heorhiy Kyrpa and Yevhen Marchuk. Nor does the current list of candidates contain Leonid Kuchma and Volodymyr Lytvyn’s names. The earlier aggregate rating of the candidates from the “party of power” was 6% to 8%, most of which were added to Viktor Yanukovych’s score. Now the percentage of votes he is likely to get in the first round roughly corresponds to the share of the electorate who backed up the pro-presidential parties and blocks at the 2002 parliamentary elections, both those which got to the Supreme Rada and those which did not.

As a result, the first month of the official presidential campaign has brought Yushchenko and Yanukovych three percent each, compared to the June indicators. Yet the prior gap stays put. In fact, the election campaign has been very slack so far. Yushchenko’s allies are starting small and slow, while the Yanukovych crew feels relaxed, realizing that their major task for the time being is to get the constitutional reform adopted in late September. Then, depending on the Supreme Rada’s voting, they will shape their genuine campaign for October-November. The people in the street, although it is vacation time, seem to be well posted on the latest developments. The tables below demonstrate their opinions of the principal contenders’ moves.

Some of our citizens remain optimistic: they still believe the Ukrainian elections can be democratic. Experts, however, find a multitude of various irregularities even at this initial stage of the campaign. The number of such irregularities will, undoubtedly, go up as the campaign proceeds, no matter what Serhiy Tyhypko might be saying about the use of administrative pressure as being inadmissible for Yanukovych and his men. It is still a toss-up if such pressure will engender apathy and resignation in the voters, as the authorities hope it will, or if it will provoke their healthy anger and resistance.

WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR IF

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WERE HELD

NEXT SUNDAY?

HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THE SECOND ROUND

OF PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WERE HELD NEXT

SUNDAY AND THE REMAINING CANDIDATES

WERE V.YUSHCHENKO AND V.YANUKOVYCH?

IN YOUR OPINION, WHICH OF THE PRESIDENTIAL

CANDIDATES WILL WIN THE ELECTIONS IF THEY

ARE FAIR AND TRANSPARENT?

IN WHAT WAY, IF AT ALL, DID YOUR INTENTION TO VOTE FOR OR AGAINST VIKTOR YUSHCHENKO CHANGE

UPON your LEARNING OF THE FOLLOWING FACTS, RUMOURS, EVENTS?

IN WHAT WAY, IF AT ALL, DID YOUR INTENTION TO VOTE FOR OR AGAINST VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH CHANGE

UPON your LEARNING OF THE FOLLOWING FACTS, RUMOURS, EVENTS?

The survey was conducted by the Razumkov Centre Sociological Service on 22-28 June 2004 in all regions of Ukraine. 2,014 respondents over 18 years of age were polled, the sampling error being 2.3%.